Sunday, March 4, 2012

Why won’t North Korean regime collapse?

North Korean Rally against

While a routine joint military drill between South Korea and U.S. is being held these days, China Central TV reported on March 03, 2012 that North Korean military officials and 100 thousand civilians convened a rally in Pyongyang to denounce the joint U.S.-South Korean war exercises.

As we know, the annual joint military drill is designed to deal with the aftermath of North Korean regime collapse, but the analysts believe the collapse of the North expected by the South won’t happen. The reasons can be analyzed as follows,

1. North Korea is one of the East Asian countries deeply influenced by Confucianism in history. In such countries, no matter what kinds of ideologies and beliefs, these ideologies or beliefs combine inevitably well with Confucian ethics. Humaneness, Righteousness, Etiquette, Loyalty, and Filial Piety are implanted into people’s souls via the education of traditional culture. Therefore, the people there accept rather easily a cult of personality and obey more willingly the ruling class and superior officials. This phenomenon can be called an ideology with a country’s own characteristics. A most obvious example is China’s socialism with Chinese characteristics. The North Korea will not be immune to this as well.

2. The leaders of North Korea successfully use so-called nationalism. The western countries may think that the hereditary political system of North Korea is vulnerable to be condemned. However, in the eyes of North Koreans, which side of the two Koreas can represent more the Korean nation? As we know, if a sudden war between North and South Korea were to occur, U.S. would assume control of the South Korean armed forces. By the effect of a media-control and under a flag of nationalism, the top leader of North Korea can easily confuse his people: ‘Look! Anyway, I am a Korean. Do you know who is the highest commander of South Korean military? An American! A Korean government and a government controlled by Americans, which is a better representative of Korean nation?’

3. Due to the Eastern Bloc’s collapse in 1990s, serious shortages on resources extremely disrupted North Korean economic development, but the Military-first policy started since 2000s stabilized significantly the North Korean military and Kim’s regime supported by the belligerent soldiers of it. Because of North Korean geological and historical relationships with China and Russia, the analysts cannot see at least in a foreseen future that the fate of Libyan Gaddafi will happen on Kim Jong-un----North Korean regime won’t have a chance to collapse, unless China’s political system is dramatically changed one day first.