Friday, January 13, 2012

How long will the mighty U.S. forces last in Asia?

Fu Di Chou Xin 釜底抽薪

At the beginning of 2012, U.S. president Obama unveiled new military strategy to switch focus to the Asia-Pacific region. It will focus much more on the capacity of America's air and naval forces to balance a competitor like China. In facing the changed strategy from U.S., what will China do?

In ancient China’s Thirty-Six Stratagems, there is a stratagem called Fu Di Chou Xin (釜底抽薪) --Extracting the Firewood from under the Cauldron. Analysts believe China has been using this stratagem successfully. With this stratagem China is gradually dissolving the mighty U.S forces.

If we look the mighty U.S. military forces as boiling water in the Cauldron, what is the firewood under it then? The answer is economy. Without a strong economy, the mighty U.S. military will be unsustainable, same as the water in the cauldron will cool down. This has been proved in Obama’s New Military Strategy Report --- Not pursue to win two wars simultaneously anymore, but only one-plus due to U.S. bad financial situation.

In the future, to ‘extract further the firewood from under the cauldron’, China will continue expanding its trade with ASEAN Countries, Australia, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and India to marginalize further U.S. businesses in this area. To prevent from U.S. sabotaging China’s business relationships in the area, China will do its best to avoid hard crashes with U.S. military forces and the forces of relevant countries, although it will still emphasis verbally its sovereignty in South China Sea and continue developing in full swing its anti-access military power to protect itself.

China is now the largest trading partner of ASEAN and Australia. It is also a significant trading partner of South Korea, Japan, India, and Taiwan. With less and less firewood under the cauldron, how long will U.S. be able to boil its water? This is what many analysts concern about.