Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Relationship between U.S. and China in 2010

Sino-U.S. relationship@peter peng blog

Generally, U.S.-China Relationship may go backward in 2010. This trend is inevitable, because U.S. and China originally are not the same kind of trains, which can run on a same track.

Last November, Obama went to China. He told Chinese leaders that U.S. did not want to contain China. He invited China to cooperate with U.S. in order to solve two top problems in the recent world: world economy and terrorist threats. Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao turned off Obama’s Group 2 suggestion on economy. On Obama’s suggestion of opening Wakhan Corridor and dispatching Chinese military personnel to Afghanistan, it seems China won’t buy the bill from U.S. either. The consequences will make China further unpopular to U.S. and western countries. Therefore, a new round of game between U.S. and China will inevitably showcase again in 2010.

Actually, it is exorable that China refuses U.S. proposals above due to totally different political natures of them two. The top priority Chinese government considers is whether the communist party would lose its regime if China goes with U.S., and the second priority it considers is whether the country would go to a split ending.

Chinese government knows that if China goes too close with U.S., U.S. would sooner or later not tolerate China’s one party only regime, and the communist party may lose its regime sooner due to the U.S. anti-terror military existence in China. From the ruin of former Soviet Union, Chinese government may also see, after the collapse of the once-powerful communist party regime, Tibet, Taiwan, Xinjiang Uyghur, and other minorities in China would go to independence, and China would not be today’s China anymore. These would be a nightmare to today’s Chinese leaders and are not they want to even think. From the analysis above we know it is inevitable for them to refuse any close co-operation with U.S. on the world affairs yesterday, today, and tomorrow.

Since U.S. and China are not able to go together, a game must be played further between them in 2010. China will be contained further and even tighter on geologically political views. U.S. will still play cards with China on human rights, the Dalai Lama and Rabiye Qadir, Taiwan, India, South China Sea, Pakistan, etc. Anyway, following the recovery of the world economy, U.S. will feel much better in the game to China than it did in 2009.