Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Relationship between U.S. and China in 2010

Sino-U.S. relationship@peter peng blog

Generally, U.S.-China Relationship may go backward in 2010. This trend is inevitable, because U.S. and China originally are not the same kind of trains, which can run on a same track.

Last November, Obama went to China. He told Chinese leaders that U.S. did not want to contain China. He invited China to cooperate with U.S. in order to solve two top problems in the recent world: world economy and terrorist threats. Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao turned off Obama’s Group 2 suggestion on economy. On Obama’s suggestion of opening Wakhan Corridor and dispatching Chinese military personnel to Afghanistan, it seems China won’t buy the bill from U.S. either. The consequences will make China further unpopular to U.S. and western countries. Therefore, a new round of game between U.S. and China will inevitably showcase again in 2010.

Actually, it is exorable that China refuses U.S. proposals above due to totally different political natures of them two. The top priority Chinese government considers is whether the communist party would lose its regime if China goes with U.S., and the second priority it considers is whether the country would go to a split ending.

Chinese government knows that if China goes too close with U.S., U.S. would sooner or later not tolerate China’s one party only regime, and the communist party may lose its regime sooner due to the U.S. anti-terror military existence in China. From the ruin of former Soviet Union, Chinese government may also see, after the collapse of the once-powerful communist party regime, Tibet, Taiwan, Xinjiang Uyghur, and other minorities in China would go to independence, and China would not be today’s China anymore. These would be a nightmare to today’s Chinese leaders and are not they want to even think. From the analysis above we know it is inevitable for them to refuse any close co-operation with U.S. on the world affairs yesterday, today, and tomorrow.

Since U.S. and China are not able to go together, a game must be played further between them in 2010. China will be contained further and even tighter on geologically political views. U.S. will still play cards with China on human rights, the Dalai Lama and Rabiye Qadir, Taiwan, India, South China Sea, Pakistan, etc. Anyway, following the recovery of the world economy, U.S. will feel much better in the game to China than it did in 2009.

Monday, January 4, 2010

Why India prepares a war against China and Pakistan simultaneously?

India and China@peter peng blog

Recently, according to Indian media, Indian Army has expressed its readiness to modify the army operational doctrine with the new training content of winning the war against China and Pakistan at the same time. This change caused attentions from U.S. and western counties and drew certainly discontent from China and Pakistan.

Analysts believe India prepares to drag Pakistan into its war against China is because India believes that it would be much easier for India to win China by fighting China and Pakistan simultaneously, but not only fighting against China and leaving Pakistan aside intact. This analysis above seems a little weird, but it is really reasonable. Let’s see the reasons as follows,

We all know that China’s land and air forces are not weaker than that of India. We also know China’s side of the Sino-Indian border is on high altitude areas such as Himalayas and Kunlun mountains. It is easy for Chinese army to defense and attack from there.

Due to high altitude in China’s side, India soldiers familiar with only normal attitude battles would feel very difficult to win Chinese soldiers specially trained in the high altitude environment. Oppositely, from high altitude areas, Chinese army could look down and easily attack India’s military facilities with various heavy firearms include artilleries and missiles. Any India’s military movement would also be easily detected by Chinese radars setup on heights there. Obviously, India may lose the battles if its army only fights China at the front theatre but not from the flanks, which, in India’s sight, are China’s fragile arteries on sea and land.

On sea, Indian navy would cut off the Chinese transportation line in India Ocean. On land, Indian army would lunge into Pakistan and occupy most part of it with Blitzkriegs to cut off the transportation line to China from Middle East and coastal ports of Pakistan. At the mean time, Indian army with tanks and artilleries would use full strengths to block Chinese attacks towards Indian land, and Indian air force would cover them on air and strafe roads and railways inland of China to hamper Chinese reinforcements to reach the boarder area. All Indian missiles would also fly to China to retaliate Chinese missile attacks although their ranges are not as far as that of the Chinese counterparts.

While battling China in theatre to win the time, India would ask U.S. and Russia on international to mediate in between it and China. Having lost arteries both on land and sea, China would feel difficult to last a long-term war against the controversy. Under the international mediation from U.S. and Russia, China would have to accept the loss and sign an armistice with India. This war would leave a defeated and destroyed Pakistan and an economy-ruined and infrastructure-destroyed China, although India would also have much loss under the long-range attacks from China.

From above we can see, to win a possible war to China, India would have to attack simultaneously into Pakistan to cut off the land artery of China. That is why India will modify the army operational doctrine to prepare a war against China and Pakistan at the same time.

At present, Army Training Command located in the Indian City Simla had accepted the new combat doctrine. Its commander Lieutenant-General Lamba said that India army would need to push to the Pakistan northeastern city Rawalpindi within 48 hours after the outbreak of war to China and Pakistan. Indian Army Chief of Staff, General Kapoor said: "India's armed forces need to fully enhance their own capacities of strategic deliveries and activities abroad in order to protect India's geo political interests. This will enable us to protect our own territorial islands and provide protection to the countries surrounding the Indian Ocean.”

Saturday, January 2, 2010

China’s Strategy to Central Asia

Central Asia@peter peng blog

Central Asia is the backyard of China. A stable and friendly environment there is extremely important to China. For the strategic development, China is endeavouring on the aspects of consolidating Shanghai Cooperation Organization, fully supporting Pakistan, and largely investing in Afghanistan.

1, Consolidation of Shanghai Cooperation Organization
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) consists of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan six countries. It was founded in 2001 in Shanghai of China. The six countries are cooperating on security, economy, and culture. In June 2009, China announced plans to loan US$ 10 billion to the member countries to help them get rid of financial crisis caused by global economic recession. At the end of 2009, the six SCO states decided to hold an anti-terror military exercise coded “Peaceful Mission—2010” in Kazakhstan. This organization is becoming a rival of U.S. and NATO trying to going into central Asia by solving Afghan problems.

2, Full Support on Pakistan
Pakistan is a country extremely important to China due to its geographical position. China has been supporting and co-operating with Pakistan for decades in all fields including national defence, technology, infrastructure construction, and finance, etc. China keeps the brother-like relationship with Pakistan is because: First, China needs Pakistan to deter India’s grow-up in Asia. Second, Pakistan connects China via Pakistan-controlled Kashmir at its north and borders Iran at its southwest. Through Pakistan, Iran’s crude oil can be easily transported to China’s landlocked Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. Third, Pakistan is a coastal country of Arabian Sea. Through a Pakistan coastal port, China can gain strategic accesses to the Persian Gulf for the crude oil, to Africa for its traditional interests, and to the Gulf of Aden for the supplies to Chinese anti-pirate warships.

3, Large Investment in Afghanistan
To expand its influences in Afghanistan, China has become the baggiest investor there. Turning away from supporting U.S. military actions on Taliban after Sept. 11, 2009, China is trying to return back to the originally neutral status there. That is, only do business and does not offend any local political force in Afghanistan. To China’s view, a SCO-controlled Afghanistan would fit China’s interests. The scenario of U.S. and NATO’s total failure in Afghanistan maybe is a good result in China’s eyes.

Whether China’s strategy to central Asia can succeed or not depends on U.S. and NATO’s military actions in Afghanistan and the development of U.S. and Pakistan relationship.