Saturday, November 28, 2009

Israel may strike Iran before Iran gets SA-20s

The International Atomic Energy Agency board of governors voted overwhelmingly (25 to 3) on Nov. 27, 2009 with rare Russian and Chinese backing to criticize Iran for developing secretly a uranium enrichment site, and demanded it immediately halt construction of the Fordow enrichment plant, located in a mountain bunker.

Although it sent a message of international annoyance and frustration to Iran's nuclear behavior, Iran still denies it wants to build nuclear weapons, saying its atomic energy programme is purely for peaceful purposes. To go continually by its own will, Iran recently launched an air-defensive drill, and hurried Russia to deliver SA-20 surface-to-air missiles within two months.

We all know that Iran is a country, which wants to eliminate Israel on the earth. Its subterfuge of pursuing atomic weapon absolutely will not be tolerable to Israel. Most analysts believe, after the resolution of IAEA, Iran will still feel difficult to co-operate well with IAEA and may continue fanning suspicions of more secret sites that could be dedicated to making atom bombs. By this trend, the analysts said, Israel certainly would air strike Iranian nuclear facilities.

According to the analysts, the Israeli air strike depends on whether the IAEA measure will translate into crucial Russian-Chinese support for painful sanctions on Iran, whether Russia will hand over SA-20 missiles to Iran, whether Israel has obtained enough intelligent information to support a successful air strike, and whether U.S. will at least keep silence after the air attack.

Some analysts even believe that the air strike maybe will happen within next two months before Iran receives the SA-20s from Russia. Iranian Ambassador to Russia Mahmoud Reza Sajadi said on Nov. 24, 2009 that Iran expects Russia to deliver powerful SA-20 air-defence missile systems within two months despite fierce objections from the United States and Israel.

The SA-20 missile system of Russia uses the 48N6E type missile, which has a range of 150 km, a maximum speed of Mach 6. The missile system uses 30N6E1 phased array radar as its fire control radar that has a maximum search distance of 300 kilometers. It is capable of simultaneously guided 12 missiles to attack six different targets. It can also track tactical ballistic missiles.

If Iran successfully deployed the Russian-origin SA-20s manufactured by Almaz-AnteyG, the analysts said, Israeli fighters would loss about one third in the air strike to the Iranian nuclear facility. That will be a hard accepted loss to Israel. That is why Israel is probably to take action before Iranian SA-20 missiles get ready.

The recent Iranian air defence are based on 29 Russian Tor M1 (SA-15) missile systems, 10 SA-5 missile systems, 150 MIM-23 Hawk missile systems. These missile systems belong to the last generation and are not able to counter Israeli electronic counter-measures (ECM) and anti-radiation air to surface missiles, and the range of Tor M1(SA-15)is not far enough to against Israeli F-15I Ra'am and F-16I Sufa fighters.

Update: Nov. 29, 2009, just two days after IAEA rebuked Iranian defiance on a secret uranium enrichment plant, Iran state broadcaster IRIB announced that Iran plans build 10 new such uranium processing factories, and they will be on the same scale as Iran’s main enrichment complex at Natanz. Upon the IRIB, the work will start within two months. Iran proved once again to the world that its determination on atomic programme is absolutely unshakable.