Sunday, October 25, 2009

The day to be defeated is not far

Chinese navy@Yaomin Peng

These days, the TV series THE SEA are on the air in China by the China Central Television (CCTV). The TV series are a tribute to the 60 anniversary of Chinese PLA navy. In one episode, the hero expressed his worry on the development of Chinese navy, saying “The day to be defeated on the Pacific Ocean is not far”. Actually the crises waiting for China, I think, are not only on the Pacific Ocean.

As we know, China is a country that extremely relies on imported resources and international trade. As statistics from China, 90% of its foreign trade relies on marine transportation. From January to November of 2008, more than 1,200 Chinese ships registered in China went through routes off Somali coast in Indian Ocean.

Recently, the Indian famous strategic expert Subramaniam wrote on Indian media suggesting Indian government to accelerate the construction of infrastructure in Arunachal Pradesh and near the Control Line of Indian-Chinese Border. The article also suggests that the Indian Government does not need to worry this action will lead to a war between India and China, because of China’s heavy reliance on oil transportation line going through the Indian Ocean.

We all know that China’s lifeline abroad is too vulnerable due to its weak navy in far oceans. Several days ago, the hijack of Chinese bulk carrier De Xin Hai showed the weakness of China to the entire world again. We also know, in the next 5 to 10 years, Indian navy will have 3 to 4 carrier battle groups cruising on oceans. If a war breaks out between India and China five years later, India will easily cut off China’s lifeline on oceans with its carrier battle groups. How long can the Chinese mighty war-machine run without supplies it desperately needs? The answer is obvious to us.

These years, Chinese people have been intoxicated by the fast growing GDP in their country. They like to hear flattering words regarding their country’s fast development due to over dignities created by the weapon embargo from the western countries. Receiving information mostly from the censored domestic media, not many of them realize the crises they are facing and that a mighty navy is the shield and foundation of their development on land. On this point, India has done much better than China.

Without a strong naval force to protect China’s vulnerable arteries on oceans, Chinese navy will soon know that the day to be defeated is not far, not only on the Pacific Ocean.